V2X (VVX)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

V2X Beats Q4 Estimates, Guides FY 2026 Well Above Street — Stock Jumps 6%

February 23, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

V2X (NYSE: VVX) delivered a clean beat across all metrics in Q4 2025 and issued FY 2026 guidance that exceeded consensus expectations by 6-14%. The defense services contractor posted record quarterly revenue of $1.22 billion and record adjusted EPS of $1.56, extending its streak of profitability improvements. Shares jumped ~6% after hours to $72.00 .

Did V2X Beat Earnings in Q4 2025?

Yes — V2X beat on revenue, adjusted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA:

Revenue grew 5% year-over-year, driven by continued demand for readiness and modernization solutions across the defense customer base. The adjusted EBITDA margin held steady at 7.3% .

Beat/miss history: V2X has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of the past 8 quarters, with the only miss occurring in Q2 2024 (-4.6%). The company has beaten revenue in 7 of 8 quarters as well.

What Did Management Guide for 2026?

V2X established FY 2026 guidance that exceeded Street expectations across the board:

The full-year guidance ranges:

• Revenue: $4.675B - $4.825B (6% growth at midpoint)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $335M - $350M
• Adjusted Diluted EPS: $5.50 - $5.90

This represents a step-up from FY 2025 results (revenue +6%, adjusted EBITDA +6%, adjusted EPS +9% at midpoints).

How Did the Stock React?

VVX shares closed the regular session at $67.94 (down 0.9%) before the earnings release. In after-hours trading, shares jumped to $70.00, up approximately 3% from the close following the Q&A portion of the call.

Stock performance context:

• 52-week high: $71.79
• 52-week low: $41.08
• YTD 2026: +22%
• 1-year return: +61%

The after-hours move takes VVX to a new all-time high, reflecting the market's positive reception of both the Q4 beat and the above-consensus 2026 outlook.

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Positive developments:

• Cash generation surged: Q4 operating cash flow of $209.5M vs. $39.4M in Q3 — a 5x improvement driven by favorable working capital timing
• Net leverage improved: Net debt reduced to $758M with 2.2x net leverage ratio, down from 2.7x a year ago
• Record quarterly revenue: $1.22B was an all-time high, surpassing the prior record
• Record adjusted EPS: $1.56 beat the prior Q4 2024 record of $1.33 by 17%

Areas to watch:

• Book-to-bill of 0.9x TTM was below 1.0x, though management expects above 1.0x in 2026 — T-6 booking alone could push it to 1.4-1.5x
• Total backlog of $11.1B does not yet include the ~$4B T-6 award, which will be booked in Q1 2026
• Indo-Pacific softness — Training year demand didn't materialize as expected, flat to slightly down outlook

What Did Management Say?

CEO Jeremy Wensinger emphasized alignment with national security priorities and the company's competitive positioning:

"This slide really represents a company that's winning. V2X excels in mission-critical work with long-term customers in areas aligned with national security priorities."

On technology strategy:

"We decided that we wanted to be on with partners whose critical path was the future of AI. I think Google is that... When I look at the transformational aspect of AI in our business, I wanted to partner with somebody who brought a tool, and I brought the data, and I brought the mission capability."

On growth outlook:

"When I look at the pipeline... I feel very good about the fact that we can continue to grow. We have nothing but an opportunity in front of us."

Key Management Priorities for 2026:

1. Bid velocity acceleration — 30% increase targeted after 50% growth in 2025
2. T-6 program execution — Transition starting March 1, proving industry-leading readiness rates
3. Technology partnerships — AWS, Google, IBM enabling faster, better outcomes
4. Employee safety — Priority focus amid Middle East operations

Key Contract Wins in 2025

V2X highlighted significant program wins that position the company for continued growth:

Management noted two contract wins over $1B each and 10 awards exceeding $100M in 2025, reflecting both customer relationships and execution capability.

Revenue Breakdown

By Customer (FY 2025):

Air Force revenue growth of 19% YoY was the standout, reflecting new contract wins and expanded scope.

By Geography (FY 2025):

U.S. revenue grew 9% YoY while Middle East revenue declined 3%, reflecting evolving deployment patterns.

Full-Year 2025 Results

GAAP net income more than doubled YoY, driven by operating leverage, lower interest expense, and reduced M&A integration costs.

Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation

V2X ended Q4 with a significantly improved balance sheet:

• Cash: $369M
• Total Debt: $1.12B
• Net Debt: $758M
• Net Leverage Ratio: 2.2x (down from 2.7x YoY)

The company initiated a $30M share repurchase during 2025, purchasing 564K shares at an average price of ~$53 .

Key Risks and Concerns

1. Book-to-bill below 1.0x: Q4's 0.7x ratio means new orders trailed revenue — need sustained wins to maintain growth trajectory

2. Government budget uncertainty: As a defense contractor, V2X is exposed to continuing resolution risks and potential budget delays

3. Customer concentration: Army (41%) and Navy (33%) represent nearly three-quarters of revenue

4. Middle East exposure: 30% of revenue from a geopolitically sensitive region

Forward Catalysts

• Three $1B+ bids pending: One bid submitted fall 2025, one to be bid this year, one in 2027 — any award would be material
• T-6 program ramp: ~$140-160M in FY 2026, with potential for margin improvement as processes are optimized
• Fixed-price contract momentum: Increasing customer interest could drive margin expansion
• Middle East potential: If geopolitical situation evolves, V2X has presence and infrastructure to capture incremental work
• Golden Dome positioning: MDA SHIELD IDIQ positions V2X for emerging missile defense priorities
• AI/ML partnerships: AWS, Google, IBM enabling faster deployment of smart solutions

Q&A Highlights

On T-6 Aircraft Program ($4.3B award): CFO Shawn Mural confirmed the T-6 award will be booked to backlog in Q1 2026 after the protest was resolved. Revenue contribution is expected to be $140-160M in FY 2026, with transition starting March 1. He noted: "There's an inherent lag. This is a largely material receipts job for us, at least at first, and there's a 90-120-day type of lag."

On $1B+ Pipeline Opportunities: CEO Jeremy Wensinger confirmed two of the five $1B+ opportunities were captured in 2025, with three remaining. One was bid in fall 2025, one to be bid this year, and one in 2027. "The fact that we were able to retire two of them in the fiscal year, plus the 10 plus $100 million ones, I think bodes well for the business."

On Bid Velocity: Wensinger emphasized the company's growth posture: "We bid 50% more last year than we did the year before. We're projected to bid 30% more this year than we did last year." The qualified pipeline now stands at more than $60 billion.

On Fixed-Price Contract Momentum: Management noted increasing interest from customers in fixed-price contracts: "Customers that have historically been cost type have approached us... It's gone from more than just talk to words on paper."

On Middle East: The situation was described as "fluid" with focus on employee safety. CFO Mural noted: "There's a very large mobilization effort going on in the region... the highest amount since 2003 in terms of assets in the region. Could there be some space for us? Yes. We have not contemplated any of that today."

On Indo-Pacific: The region was "flat to slightly down" in 2025 and expected to continue into 2026. Management noted that the expected "training year" in the region didn't materialize to historical volumes.

Strategic Partnerships: AWS and Google

V2X announced technology partnerships that signal a shift toward AI-enabled mission solutions:

Amazon Web Services (AWS): Partnership to advance smart warehousing and global logistics automation. "AWS is one of the best in the world at the ability to manage a warehouse... We own all the data, and what they own is the process."

Google Public Sector: Deploying secure, responsible AI solutions that meet stringent security and compliance requirements. "Google is clearly invested in AI... taking our data and using our data in a way that's gonna enable my customer to have better outcomes, faster outcomes, and more efficient outcomes."

IBM: Also mentioned as a key partner in the technology-first strategy.

CEO Wensinger framed the strategy: "We're deepening our bias for innovation. We are transforming our global presence into a true global persistence through speed and execution."

2026 Growth Drivers

Management provided detailed breakdowns of 2026 revenue growth drivers:

Recompete Risk Reduced: Only 3% of FY 2026 revenue is subject to recompete, down significantly from prior years.

85% of 2026 Revenue in Backlog: Excluding T-6 (to be booked in Q1), approximately 85% of full-year revenue is already in backlog.

Conference Call Details

Management hosted a conference call at 4:30 PM ET on February 23, 2026 .

• Webcast: V2X Investor Relations
• Dial-in (US): 877-300-8521
• Dial-in (International): 412-317-6026
• Replay passcode: 10195666 (available through March 9, 2026)

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V2X (NYSE: VVX) is a defense services company providing mission-critical solutions across the Department of Defense with approximately 16,000 employees globally.